Martin Kaymer came back down to earth on Saturday at the US Open, shooting a 2-over 72 to drop back to 8-under for the tournament.
Despite that, he lost just one stroke off his lead from the end of Friday, and will enter the final 18 holes with a commanding 5-stroke lead over Rickie Fowler and Erik Compton, who each shot a 3-under 67 to move up from tied for 14th to tied for 2nd.
Only two scenarios seem possible where Kaymer doesn’t win his second Major at this point: an utter collapse on his part or someone getting hotter than any golfer, save Kaymer himself, has been so far at Pinehurst No. 2.
No player besides Kaymer has shot better than a 67 so far. Even if Fowler or Compton repeated that feat on Sunday, Kaymer would still need to finish only 1-over par to win the title.
Only six players in the entire field are below par through 54 holes. But if someone were to catch fire and make a big push at Kaymer on Sunday, they are a likely bunch, with Henrik Stenson and Dustin Johnson tied for fourth at 2-under and Brandt Sneedker alone in sixth at 1-under.
After just one bogey in his first 36 holes, Kaymer had three in the first six on Saturday, but balanced them out with an eagle on No. 5. Two more bogeys on the back nine preceded his only other hole under par on the course, a birdie on No. 18.
The sluggish third round would have seemed like the ideal situation for American Brendon Todd to capitalize on, but Todd, who began the day 4-under, was in no position to make a move.
Todd bogeyed three of the first four holes, added a double bogey on No. 7 and was 4-over on the back nine, leading to a 9-over 79 that saw him rocket from 4-under to 5-over, dropping him into a tie for 30th.
Defending US Open champion Justin Rose shot an even par 70 to claw his way up from 20th to tied for 10th, but at 1-over, he’s nine strokes off the lead.